Prices Rise, Luxury Deals Return, and New World’s K11 Signals a Retail Rebound: Hong Kong Property Market January 2026 Recap

Recovery Signals Strengthen, but the Market Remains Uneven.

Hong Kong Property Market January Overview

Hong Kong’s property market entered 2026 doing two things at once. January confirmed the emerging recovery narrative that took shape in late 2025—most visibly in new‑home sales, luxury residential transactions, and prime Central office leasing. At the same time, it exposed how uneven that recovery remains across districts and asset classes, with industrial property and parts of the New Territories still under pressure.

Rather than a broad‑based rebound, January illustrated a market that has found a floor but is climbing back unevenly, led by scale projects, compact units, and prime assets where liquidity has clearly returned.

Below is a Hong Kong property market January 2026 recap, a district‑by‑district, sector‑by‑sector look at what has occurred in January—including specific transactions, leases, and government land tenders that shaped the month.

Macro Signals: Evidence of a Floor, Not a Boom

Much of January’s optimism was anchored in data released early in the month rather than transactions completed during it. Land Registry figures showed that December 2025 recorded 8,999 sale and purchase agreements across all building units, up more than 26% month‑on‑month and over 63% year‑on‑year, with total consideration reaching HK$65 billion. Residential agreements accounted for nearly 5,900 transactions, supported heavily by lower‑priced and subsidised housing.

At month‑end, government price data added a second layer of confirmation. The official private home price index posted its first annual increase since 2021, rising a little over 3% in 2025, with December marking the seventh consecutive month of gains. Even so, prices remain roughly 30% below the 2021 peak, underscoring that January’s story was about stabilisation rather than exuberance.

Residential Sales: Primary Market Does the Heavy Lifting

If January had a single engine, it was the primary residential market—particularly large‑scale developments in the New Territories and projects offering smaller, more affordable units.

Sun Hung Kai Properties’ Sierra Sea in Shap Sze Heung emerged as the month’s flagship launch. Phase 2A alone saw around 660 units sold by late January, with multiple batches clearing quickly. As one of Hong Kong’s largest residential developments in more than two decades, Sierra Sea mattered not just for volume but for psychology: scale itself became a signal that mass‑market liquidity had returned.

That same dynamic played out in Tseung Kwan O, where Wheelock Properties and the MTR Corporation’s Park Seasons at LOHAS Park saw strong absorption of small units. Prices largely fell within a HK$5 million to HK$10 million range, capturing first‑time buyers, upgraders, and yield‑focused investors. On Hong Kong Island, K. Wah International’s Kabitat Tin Hau demonstrated that demand was not limited to suburban new towns, selling out 60 compact urban units in a single day.

Developers, notably, are no longer holding back supply. Major players have signalled plans to launch thousands of units in 2026, a factor likely to sustain transaction volume but limit near‑term pricing power.

Secondary Housing: Prices Edge Up, Selectively

The secondary market followed the primary surge with its usual lag. Centaline’s Centa‑City Leading Index showed prices rising nearly 1% year‑to‑date by late January, but the gains were uneven. Hong Kong Island posted the strongest weekly increase, while New Territories West recorded a decline, reflecting sensitivity to new‑supply competition.

The pattern reinforced a familiar reality: resale liquidity improves first in transport‑anchored, land‑constrained districts, while areas facing heavy pipeline competition remain price‑driven and selective.

Luxury Residential: Liquidity Returns at the Top

January also confirmed that Hong Kong’s luxury market is no longer frozen. A headline transaction at Mount Nicholson on The Peak, where a house sold for HK$1.04 billion, signalled that trophy assets are trading again. Bloomberg‑reported deals across Deep Water Bay, Discovery Bay, and Plantation Road reinforced the point, as did a late‑month cluster of high‑value transactions in Mid‑Levels, Wan Chai, and Sai Kung.

Mainland buyers remained a critical driver at this end of the market, having accounted for an estimated HK$16 billion of luxury purchases in The Peak and Southern District in 2025. January’s activity suggested that momentum carried into the new year.

Offices: Central Leads While Vacancy Persists

The office sector delivered one of January’s clearest contrasts. In Central, named financial tenants expanded. Ares Management doubled its footprint at Gloucester Tower, while Point72 increased its commitment at The Henderson to 85,000 square feet. These moves highlighted a continuing flight to quality within the CBD.

Citywide, however, vacancy remains a structural constraint. CBRE data showed strong net absorption in late 2025 and the first quarterly rent growth since 2019, yet overall vacancy climbed to more than 17% due to heavy new supply. Central may be improving, but the broader office market remains tenant‑favourable.

Retail: Core Districts Tighten as Tourism Returns

Retail was one of January’s brighter stories. Vacancy in the four core retail districts fell to its lowest level since 2019, and rents posted modest growth. New World Development’s K11 MUSEA in Tsim Sha Tsui provided a concrete datapoint, reporting nearly 50% year‑on‑year footfall growth over the New Year holiday period and strong luxury sales, including individual tourist purchases exceeding HK$1 million.

These performance metrics matter for property markets because improved tenant sales density feeds directly into leasing demand and rent reversion expectations in prime corridors.

Industrial and Logistics: Still the Laggard

Industrial property remained the weakest segment. Leasing activity improved quarter‑on‑quarter, but vacancy reached record highs and rents continued to fall. Structural factors—supply‑chain reconfiguration, consolidation, and new completions—continue to weigh on the sector, making it the clearest outlier in Hong Kong’s recovery narrative.

Land Supply: From Policy to Pipeline

January also marked a shift from discussion to execution on land supply. The government launched residential tenders in Ngau Tau Kok and Shau Kei Wan, both in established urban areas, while signalling that private housing land supply for the fiscal year would exceed targets by nearly 20%.

More significantly, tender terms for the Hung Shui Kiu large‑scale land disposal pilot were adjusted to improve bid viability, including phased premiums and revised technical weighting. These mechanics will influence whether developers bid—and how aggressively—later in the cycle.

Conclusion: A Market Finding Its Shape

January 2026 did not mark a full‑fledged recovery for Hong Kong property, but it did something arguably more important: it clarified where momentum truly lies. New‑home sales, luxury residential assets, prime Central offices, and core retail streets are moving first. Industrial property and supply‑heavy districts are not.

For investors, developers, and policymakers, January’s lesson is that Hong Kong’s recovery is real—but it is selective, capital‑dependent, and still constrained by supply dynamics. The floor appears to be in place. The climb back, however, will not be uniform.